The Electoral Commission of Armenia published data, which allows to state: Pashinian had a clean victory. Russian activist with the independent election-monitoring group Golos, Roman Udot, analyzed normal distribution of votes and did not find major abnormalities in voting pattern. All parties have a normal "bell curve" without sparks.

The level of transparency and data in Armenia is insane. The electoral committee of Armenia published not only the results, but also the original sources such voters' lists, which might qualify for a breach of personal data. We compared the original sources to the reports on turnout and found no disparities. Since Armenia is on the verge of a new revolution, publication of personal data that proves absence of "throw-ins" and might contribute to social stability is ethically inappropriate, but understandable.

Since the end of the war in Karabakh in November of 2020, Yerevan has been protesting against Nikol Pashinian. 41% of Yerevanees supported his Civil Alliance. Although it is already more than was initially expected, Pashinian's primary support came from rural areas. As Sergei Markedonov, a researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies, assumes Pashinian tapped into the institution of elders. Elders have always been supportive of acting rulers and posse authority to consolidate villagers. Data published by the Electoral Commission of Armenia proves that Pashinian received significant support in rural areas.

While losing the capital, Pashinian acquired strong support in rural regions such as Shirak (65%). Many natives of this region became the first POWs in the 2020 Karabakh war. Although many these POWs are still being tortured and killed in captivity, Pashinian negotiated release of a few Armenians, which raised his approval rate in the region. The region of Suinik, a de-facto active warzone, which lays on the pathways between the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan' and prevents direct communication between Baku and Istanbul, for a while did not allow Pashinian to come in considering him a traitor for the conditions of ceasefire agreement. Continuing instability and Azerbaijani attacks on Armenian border villages, explained by disagreements in demarcations, changed opinions in Suinik and its population voted for Civil Agreement to prevent further exacerbation.

But what about the Gallup polls that predicted 24.1% for the Civil Agreement and 23.8% for the Alliance "Armenia"? As in the US elections of 2014, polls were wrong, mobilization of rural population was not considered, and the result was unpredictable. However, situation in Armenia shared no similarities with the situation in the US. As it appeared, the Gallup polls were conducted not by the US Gallup Organization, but by Marketing Professional Group (MPG LLC), a member of the Gallup International, which uses the Gallup brand. The MPG is related to Kocharyan. Allegedly, the MPG "Gallup" polls were disinformation.

Armenian Election Study survey was also out of target with the final numbers, but at least predicted a proportion of vote distribution. The survey assumed that Pashinian's party would get twice as much as Kocharian's block.

Pashinian's victory is legitimate both for the Armenians and Moscow, which remains the only guarantor of Armenia's territorial integrity. Although Pashinian came to power with regular westernizing promises, his miscommunication with Moscow has contributed to the defeat in the 2020 war. Armenia spends on military 6 times less than Azerbaijan and its military population is three times smaller. In the case of Azeri-Turkish invasion, which has already been equivocally announced by the Azerbaijan President Aliev, Armenia will seize to exist as a state. Brutal violence against civilians in the Azerbaijan regained regions also marks that Armenian population of Armenia will have to flee. Any move of Pashinian against Moscow can result withdrawal of Russian troops and consequent disappearance of the Armenian state and its people. Armenia has gone through this for three times in its history, so these gloomy predictions sound realistic to many Armenians.