In 1988, the bloody Armenian Pogrom in the Azerbaijani city of Sumgait, mass Armenian protests for reunification of Armenian sector of Karabakh with Armenia, and the rising pressure on the Azeri population of the Nagorno-Karabakh, revived mass ethic violence between the two Soviet peoples, which was previously checked by Moscow. The 1992-1994 Karabakh war equalized political and ethnic borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Baku expelled all Armenians from Azerbaijan, Yerevan expelled all Azeris from Armenia, and the emerged Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh republic expelled all Azeris from the occupied ethnically Azeri areas of the region. In course of 26 post-war years, Armenia and Azerbaijan acquired a new generation, who never communicated with each other and grew in the condition of undisputed hatred to significant other. As the winners of the 1992-1994 war, new Armenians grew with a sense of self-glorification and denigration of the Azeris as a nation. On the opposite, the new Azeris grew with a sense of revenge and often received encouragements for violence from the President Aliev, who, for instance, awarded an Azerbaijani soldier, who stabbed a sleeping Armenian soldier on the mutual NATO trainings in Hungary in 2004. The new generations met on the battlefield in 2020 to kill each other. From 10 to 14 thousands of them have left there forever and those who survived only enhanced the desire to slaughter the significant other.

The desire to kill each other need a political impetus to turn into a genocide. Armenia separates Turkey and Azerbaijan and does not allow to fulfill the pan-Turkic project of the Great Turan, promoted by the President Erdogan of Turkey. As the result of the 2020 war, Azerbaijan acquired a transport corridor through the Armenian region of Syunik/Zangezur, which will connect Baku with Turkey through its exclave of Nakhichevan. Armenians associate emergence of this corridor with the first step to solution of Armenian question. Many believe that deeper integration of Azerbaijan and Turkey on Armenian soil will evolve into the attempt to seize the entire region of Syunik/Zangezur and result into a new genocide. Armenian scare of genocide is reinforced not only by ethnic cleansings of 2020, but also by official statements from Baku. On the post-war military parade in Baku, President Aliev stood shoulder to shoulder to the President Erdogan of Turkey and announced Zangezur and Yerevan historical lands of Azerbaijan.

Russia has been playing the role of Armenian military defender in the region since the 19^th century and reinforced its role after the 2020 war, securing a new military base in Zangezur. So far it is unlikely that either Turkey or Azerbaijan will try to challenge Russia on the Armenian soil. Thus, Russian presence prevents the genocide scenario, often discussed in Armenian discourse. However, how stable and popular this support is?

As the result of the 2020 war ceasefire agreement, Russia reinforced its military presence in the region and enhanced its position in the Middle East through securing of new bases in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. What do Russians think about this? Levada surveys demonstrate that from 2016 positive attitude of the Russians to Armenia and Azerbaijan has declined. 74% does not share sympathy with either side. However, 60% approve presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region, which shows that the Russians are primarily interested in promotion of Russian interests. 21% of respondents think that the US and NATO was behind the initiation of 2020 war (Azerbaijan - 18%; Turkey – 16%; Armenia – 8%). This yet again points at geopolitical interests of Russians. Although, in 2016 50% of Russians fully acknowledge the Armenian genocide and 13% considered it "overestimated," the question of ethnic relations in the region do not inform Russians' attitude to the 2020 Karabakh war. Hence, the discourse of a new genocide does not influence opinions of Russians and their positive attitude to Russians bases is based on geopolitical arguments.

As it often happens, the new genocide discourse in Armenia is a little bit of both. Ethic cleanings in the 2020 war, unchecked hatred, and conflicting geopolitical interests can facilitate a massive extermination of Armenians. However, current reality keeps it a possibility until Russia maintains its peacekeeping responsibilities in exchange for geopolitical benefits from the Armenian side. Russians seem to agree with this politics of the Kremlin and the next milestone in the life of the region will be reached with expiration of Russian peacekeeping mandate in Karabakh in 2025.